Field Development Planning Under Uncertainty Training Course

Field Development Planning Under Uncertainty Training Course

Introduction

Field Development Planning Under Uncertainty Training Course is designed to equip oil and gas professionals with advanced technical knowledge and strategic decision-making skills required to develop robust, economically viable, and risk-informed field development plans in complex and uncertain operating environments. The course explores the integration of reservoir characterization, subsurface uncertainty analysis, probabilistic modelling, production forecasting, reservoir simulation, facilities engineering, and economic evaluation to support effective field development decisions. Participants will examine the impact of geological complexity, reservoir connectivity, fluid properties, production performance, oil and gas price volatility, capital expenditure, operating costs, and regulatory changes on field development outcomes.

This training course emphasizes integrated field development planning, probabilistic reserves estimation, risk-based investment decisions, uncertainty-aware production optimization, and adaptive project execution. Participants will learn how to develop low-, base-, and high-case scenarios, assess the value of additional information, optimize well placement and drilling sequences, evaluate infrastructure alternatives, and establish decision gates that accommodate changing subsurface and commercial conditions. Real-world case studies, technical exercises, and multidisciplinary workshops will demonstrate how uncertainty can be transformed into actionable development strategies. By the end of the course, participants will be better prepared to deliver resilient field development plans, improve capital allocation, reduce project risks, maximize recovery, and enhance long-term asset value across onshore, offshore, conventional, and unconventional oil and gas projects.

Course Duration

5 days

Course Objectives

By the end of this course, participants will be able to:

1. Apply uncertainty quantification techniques to identify and evaluate geological, reservoir, engineering, operational, and economic uncertainties affecting field development.
2. Develop integrated field development plans that account for subsurface variability, production uncertainty, infrastructure constraints, and commercial risks.
3. Apply probabilistic reservoir modelling to evaluate alternative reservoir descriptions and their impact on production forecasts.
4. Use Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic modelling to quantify uncertainty in reserves, recovery factors, project costs, and economic returns.
5. Conduct scenario-based production forecasting to evaluate low-, base-, and high-case development outcomes.
6. Perform risk-based economic evaluation using net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), expected monetary value (EMV), and decision-tree analysis.
7. Optimize well placement, drilling schedules, and development phasing under uncertain reservoir and operational conditions.
8. Evaluate alternative field development concepts and facilities configurations using technical, economic, and risk-based criteria.
9. Apply sensitivity analysis and uncertainty ranking to identify the variables with the greatest influence on project performance.
10. Assess the value of information (VOI) associated with appraisal wells, seismic surveys, well testing, and additional reservoir studies.
11. Integrate risk management and decision analysis into concept selection, project sanctioning, and development execution.
12. Incorporate digital oilfield technologies, real-time data analytics, and predictive modelling into uncertainty-aware planning and asset management.
13. Develop adaptive field development strategies that improve capital efficiency, enhance recovery, strengthen project resilience, and support sustainable asset performance.

Target Audience

1. Petroleum engineers and field development engineers.
2. Reservoir engineers and reservoir simulation specialists.
3. Geoscientists, exploration geologists, and geophysicists.
4. Drilling, completions, and well intervention engineers.
5. Production engineers and asset optimization professionals.
6. Field development planners, project engineers, and project managers.
7. Oil and gas economists, investment analysts, and commercial managers.
8. Senior technical professionals, asset managers, and upstream decision-makers.

Course Modules

Module 1: Fundamentals of Field Development Planning Under Uncertainty

• Principles of integrated field development planning and asset life-cycle management.
• Sources of uncertainty in geology, reservoir performance, well productivity, facilities, and project economics.
• Differentiating uncertainty, variability, risk, and operational constraints.
• Development planning workflows, multidisciplinary integration, and decision gates.
• Case study: Evaluating alternative development strategies for a newly discovered offshore oil field with limited appraisal data.

Module 2: Subsurface Uncertainty and Reservoir Characterization

• Geological uncertainty involving structure, stratigraphy, depositional environments, and fault interpretation.
• Reservoir property uncertainty, including porosity, permeability, net-to-gross ratio, and fluid contacts.
• Static and dynamic reservoir modelling for alternative geological realizations.
• Probabilistic reserves estimation and uncertainty ranges in recoverable hydrocarbons.
• Case study: Assessing alternative reservoir models for a heterogeneous field and determining their implications for well placement and recovery.

Module 3: Probabilistic Modelling and Uncertainty Quantification

• Fundamentals of deterministic and probabilistic modelling in field development.
• Application of probability distributions to uncertain technical and economic parameters.
• Monte Carlo simulation for reserves, production, costs, and project returns.
• Scenario generation, correlation between variables, and uncertainty propagation.
• Case study: Using probabilistic simulation to estimate production and economic outcomes for a field with uncertain permeability and recovery factors.

Module 4: Production Forecasting and Development Scenario Analysis

• Building production forecasts under low-, base-, and high-case assumptions.
• Assessing reservoir pressure, decline rates, water breakthrough, and gas production uncertainty.
• Integrating well performance, recovery mechanisms, and facility capacity into production profiles.
• Evaluating plateau duration, production decline, and recovery potential across development scenarios.
• Case study: Comparing production forecasts for an offshore field with uncertain aquifer support and variable well productivity.

Module 5: Well Placement, Drilling Strategy, and Development Phasing

• Optimizing well locations under structural and reservoir property uncertainty.
• Evaluating horizontal, vertical, and multilateral well development options.
• Assessing infill drilling, appraisal drilling, and phased development strategies.
• Integrating drilling schedules, rig availability, well costs, and operational risks.
• Case study: Selecting a phased drilling programme for a reservoir with uncertain compartmentalization and limited drilling capacity.

Module 6: Economic Evaluation and Risk-Based Decision Analysis

• Applying NPV, IRR, payback period, breakeven price, and economic limit analysis.
• Evaluating capital expenditure (CAPEX), operating expenditure (OPEX), and commodity price uncertainty.
• Using decision trees, expected monetary value, and probabilistic economic modelling.
• Conducting sensitivity analysis, scenario comparison, and risk-adjusted investment assessment.
• Case study: Comparing two competing field development concepts under volatile oil prices, uncertain reserves, and escalating project costs.

Module 7: Value of Information, Risk Management, and Adaptive Planning

• Evaluating the value of additional seismic data, appraisal wells, and reservoir testing.
• Applying decision analysis to determine whether further data acquisition is economically justified.
• Developing risk registers, uncertainty matrices, mitigation measures, and contingency plans.
• Establishing decision thresholds, stage gates, and adaptive development strategies.
• Case study: Determining whether an additional appraisal well could reduce reservoir uncertainty sufficiently to improve the field development investment decision.

Module 8: Integrated Development Optimization, Digital Tools, and Sustainability

• Integrating subsurface, wells, production facilities, economics, and operational constraints.
• Applying digital oilfield technologies, data analytics, and predictive modelling to development planning.
• Evaluating facility sizing, export capacity, processing constraints, and infrastructure flexibility.
• Incorporating emissions reduction, energy efficiency, environmental risks, and sustainability considerations.
• Case study: Developing an uncertainty-aware field development plan that balances recovery, capital efficiency, production flexibility, and emissions performance.

Training Methodology

• Interactive lectures and presentations.
• Group discussions and brainstorming sessions.
• Hands-on exercises using real-world datasets.
• Role-playing and scenario-based simulations.
• Analysis of case studies to bridge theory and practice.
• Peer-to-peer learning and networking.
• Expert-led Q&A sessions.
• Continuous feedback and personalized guidance.

Register as a group from 3 participants for a Discount

Send us an email: info@datastatresearch.org or call +254724527104 

Certification

Upon successful completion of this training, participants will be issued with a globally- recognized certificate.

Tailor-Made Course

 We also offer tailor-made courses based on your needs.

Key Notes

a. The participant must be conversant with English.

b. Upon completion of training the participant will be issued with an Authorized Training Certificate

c. Course duration is flexible and the contents can be modified to fit any number of days.

d. The course fee includes facilitation training materials, 2 coffee breaks, buffet lunch and A Certificate upon successful completion of Training.

e. One-year post-training support Consultation and Coaching provided after the course.

f. Payment should be done at least a week before commence of the training, to DATASTAT CONSULTANCY LTD account, as indicated in the invoice so as to enable us prepare better for you.